The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Manufacturing
PVH Corp.
PVH · the NYSE · USD · 15,000 employees
PVH Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an apparel company in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
78.51 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
PVH Corp. holds its Distribution at $78.51. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 105 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 105 days
Price at the screen
$78.51
Valuation
23.79 trailing · 6.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Apparel brands hit the same old cycle trap
Walk into any high street store and the racks tell the same story every few years. PVH owns Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein yet still only grows revenue at 2 percent with profit margins stuck at 2 percent and return on equity at just 3 percent. A forward multiple of 6.3 times looks tempting until you remember this is a cyclical business whose earnings peak right before consumer spending turns.
The ethical screen clears without issue, and the numbers show a company that is neither broken nor particularly well placed. Low growth and thin returns leave little room for error when fashion tastes shift or cotton prices spike. The market has already priced in modest expectations, which is why the opportunity rating stays at none.
Risk sits in the usual places for apparel: sudden changes in consumer habits, heavy competition from faster brands, and the simple fact that low multiples on weak returns often signal a value trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PVH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown$78.51+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown$78.51+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markdown$78.51+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markdown$78.51+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markdown$78.51+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markdown · changed$78.51+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markup$78.51-10.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup · changed$87.58+0.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-18Markup$81.96+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.