NAS10027,087+1.72%S&P7,401+0.65%GOLD$4,073−1.00%BTC$75,828−0.15%VIX24.55−12.88%latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Trucking
XPOXPO Inc
XPO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $21.3B · 37,000 employees
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
176.48 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price176.48 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.11, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price176.48 USD
Fair value180.66
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation177.67-0.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-17Read Markdown184.80-4.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 19% slide in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation228.33-22.7% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
XPO Inc holds its Accumulation at $176.48. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$176.48
Valuation
53.62 trailing · 27.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
XPO's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $180.66 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.3% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $180.66, with a range of $103.50 to $207.76, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucking moves goods but prices can stall
Picture a lorry loaded with freight rolling across borders. The cargo reaches its destination yet the bill for the shares far exceeds the value those wheels generate. XPO trades at 215 dollars against a fair value of 178, a 35.6 times forward earnings multiple on just 7 percent revenue growth and 4 percent margins.
We pass because the narrow moat and modest returns on equity of 20 percent do not justify paying above fair value. Analysts may cluster around a 236 dollar target yet the numbers show an expensive business in a competitive haulage market where pricing power stays limited.
Trucking remains cyclical so any slowdown in volumes would quickly pressure those thin margins and leave the current valuation exposed. Ethical checks clear yet the price leaves no margin of safety.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XPO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$188.06+3.1%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-10-29Accumulation$182.32+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$182.32+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$182.32-1.5%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$185.10+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$185.10+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$185.10+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$185.10+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$185.10+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$185.10+4.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $225.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.