Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
RXO, Inc. holds its Markdown at $19.57. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$19.57
Valuation
N/A trailing · 32.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Freight broker priced well above its broken numbers
Every load a shipper needs moved still relies on someone matching trucks to freight, and RXO sits in that middle seat. Yet the shares trade at 54.8 times forward earnings while revenue shrinks 1 percent, margins sit at minus 2 percent and return on equity is minus 7 percent. With fair value at 15.41 against a 29.29 price, the gap leaves no margin of safety and earns an opportunity rating of none.
We pass because the market already prices in a recovery the results refuse to show. Seventeen analysts cluster around a 26 target that still sits below the current quote, and an unknown moat offers no protection in a business that is essentially a service spread. The ethical screen clears, but valuation alone is enough to walk away.
Cyclical trucking exposes any broker to volume swings and rate collapses that can erase thin spreads for years. Negative earnings leave little room for error if freight demand stays soft. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RXO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$22.19+2.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 23.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markup$28.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markup$28.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$28.35Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
