Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.23, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price133.59 USD
Fair value179.62
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Accumulation134.48-0.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 5 days
2026-10-30Read Markdown126.41+5.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-29Read Accumulation125.81+6.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-28Read Markdown130.81+2.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ArcBest Corporation holds its Accumulation at $133.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$133.59
Valuation
196.18 trailing · 14.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
ArcBest clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ARCB passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 26% discount to our $179.62 fair value, 15.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $179.62, with a range of $143.42 to $239.04, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Thin Margins Leave This Trucker Hard to Love
Picture a lorry rumbling across the Midwest with a load of widgets. The driver gets paid, the fuel gets burned, yet the operator keeps only a penny on every pound of revenue. ArcBest sits in that exact spot. Revenue inches ahead at 3 percent while profit margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity barely clears 4 percent. A forward multiple of 17 times does not look expensive on paper, yet nothing here signals the business can widen those returns.
We give the ethical screen a clean pass and note the modest 12 percent gap to our fair value. Still the opportunity rating stays at none. Analysts like the name and their 173 dollar median target sits above the current price, but low growth and thin capital returns leave little room for error in a competitive haulage market.
The real risk is that this remains a classic cyclical value trap. Peak-cycle earnings can look cheap on a modest multiple while the underlying economics stay ordinary. Currency moves, fuel spikes and any slowdown in freight volumes would hit hard. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARCB trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$130.96+4.4%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$125.44+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$125.44+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$125.44-0.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown · changed$126.41+0.5%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$130.81+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$130.81-1.7%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 137%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
