Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price10.15 USD
Fair value7.95
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution10.19-0.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-28Read Markdown10.29-1.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 6 days
2026-10-22Read Distribution11.13-8.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-18Read Markdown11.13-8.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Heartland Express, Inc. holds its Distribution at $10.15. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$10.15
Valuation
N/A trailing · 23.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
13.55%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.10%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Heartland Express, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 14%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today HTLD passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $7.95 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $7.95, with a range of $7.95 to $9.15, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucking hauls hit reverse across three borders
Every load that rolls out of a Heartland yard still has to fight fuel spikes, driver shortages and empty backhauls that never quite cover the miles. The business is losing money at a six percent margin while revenue drops twenty percent, yet the shares trade at fifteen dollars against a fair value near nine. We pass because the numbers show contraction, not opportunity.
Forward earnings sit at twenty-eight times while return on equity is negative and growth has turned sharply lower. Analyst targets cluster around thirteen dollars and the hold consensus matches the weak outlook. Ethical checks clear, yet that alone cannot rescue a carrier whose volumes and pricing power are both sliding.
Cyclical trucking always looks tempting when multiples compress, but here the multiple stays elevated while earnings keep falling, a classic warning sign rather than a bargain. Capacity can swing fast and contracts reprice just as quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HTLD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Distribution$10.72+5.2%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown · changed$10.29+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$10.29+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$10.29+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$10.29+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$10.29+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$10.29-7.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$11.13-1.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 53% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 76%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $12.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
