Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 16.73, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price96.64 USD
Fair value157.63
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Markdown128.97-25.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-14Read Distribution147.76-34.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation160.40-39.8% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TFI International Inc holds its Distribution at $96.64. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 336 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 336 days
Price at the screen
$96.64
Valuation
27.54 trailing · 14.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.93%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.33%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.02%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
TFI International's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 43% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TFII's ethical verdict changes
Today TFII does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 36% discount to our $157.63 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 12.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $157.63, with a range of $118.80 to $195.32, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Border trucking with thin margins and flat growth
Every day goods cross the US Canada line in trailers that never stop moving. TFI runs those routes through less than truckload and full truckload fleets yet the numbers show little momentum. Revenue slipped one percent while profit margins sit at four percent and return on equity reaches just eleven percent.
The business carries a narrow moat and trades at twenty one times forward earnings barely two percent below our fair value. That leaves almost no cushion and the opportunity rating stays at none. Analyst targets sit higher but the flat top line and modest returns give us nothing to get excited about.
Trucking stays cyclical so any slowdown in freight volumes can quickly pressure those already thin margins. Currency moves between the dollar and loonie add another layer of noise. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TFII trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$93.32-17.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 17.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-10-25Markdown$112.50+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-10-18Markdown$112.50-10.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-10-02Markdown$125.16-3.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$128.97-12.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-07-18Accumulation$160.40+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 48% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $158.
2026-07-03Accumulation$160.40+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$160.40Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
