An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $226.77
Old Dominion holds its Markup at $226.77.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
STUDY
Titan case study · our full written analysis of ODFL
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price
$226.77
Valuation
47.24 trailing · 34.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 96.8
Beta
1.18
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $182.09 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Read at
$226.77
47.24 P/E · 34.97 fwd
Our fair value
$182.09
20% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$234.50
+3% to current
Target low $155.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $280.00
▲ current $226.77 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$226.77
you are here
Conservative
$139.50
-38%
Analyst avg
$234.50
+3%
Our fair value
$182.09
-20%
Analyst high
$280.00
+23%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-2.90%
Profit margin
18.46%
Debt to equity
0.91
Analyst consensus
Hold · 22 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 0.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 10.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Trucking loads shrink yet the price keeps rising
Picture a freight yard where trailers sit a little longer between runs. Old Dominion moves less-than-truckload cargo across the United States with solid margins and a moderate moat, yet revenue has already slipped 3 percent while the shares trade at 36 times forward earnings.
That multiple sits well above what the numbers support. Our fair value sits 22 percent lower than the current price, and the market's hold rating with a $234 median target simply echoes the same stretched valuation. Strong 23 percent ROE and 18 percent profit margins cannot offset the lack of growth in a business that still depends on cyclical volumes.
The real risk is paying peak prices for a cyclical operator whose top line is already contracting. Ethical checks clear, but the valuation does not. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ODFL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$242.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
2026-07-03Distribution$242.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$242.57Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (97). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
