Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price268.59 USD
Fair value405.49Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution285.97-6.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-10-21Read Markup297.97-9.9% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-09-17Read Markdown294.87-8.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-18Read Distribution345.59-22.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 14% slide in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Winmark Corporation holds its Distribution at $268.59. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 569 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 569 days
Price at the screen
$268.59
Valuation
23.98 trailing · 22.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
250.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 250.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
41.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 41.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.15%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Winmark's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 251% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $405.49 fair value, 23.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.8% discount to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $405.49, with a range of $405.49 to $466.31, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Resale Franchisor Trades Well Above Fair Value
When parents clear outgrown kids' clothes through a local Once Upon A Child franchise the operator earns a royalty without holding inventory or running stores. Winmark sits behind that model yet the shares price in flawless results already and leave nothing on the table.
Revenue edges up eight percent annually while margins hit forty seven percent, both respectable in specialty retail. The valuation however offers no attraction at thirty two times forward earnings, six percent above our fair value and with an opportunity rating of none despite clearing the ethical screen.
Consumer spending on discretionary used goods turns quickly in any downturn and the single analyst coverage plus unknown moat add further uncertainty. Cyclical exposure at this multiple simply fails to justify any allocation.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WINA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$297.97+2.1%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545.
2026-10-14Markdown$291.86+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$291.86+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$291.86-1.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$295.85+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$295.85+3.7%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$285.38-3.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545.
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$294.87-14.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $545.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
