Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.74 USD
Fair value28.27
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.44+8.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. holds its Distribution at $16.74. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$16.74
Valuation
27.00 trailing · 13.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.86%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 69% discount to our $28.27 fair value, weak competitive moat, 2.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 68.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +79% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Specs Chain Trips Over Debt Load
Picture a family picking up new glasses at a strip-mall chain. The purchase feels ordinary, yet the retailer behind the counter carries a debt burden that our ethical screen simply will not accept. National Vision therefore fails at the first gate, regardless of any apparent discount to our internal value.
The numbers do not rescue the story. Revenue growth of just 7 percent, a 2 percent profit margin and 5 percent ROE all point to a weak moat in a crowded retail lane. A forward multiple of 17.5 times offers no cushion once the debt constraint is recognised, and the buy-rated analyst targets sit outside our mandate.
High leverage remains the binding risk, leaving the business exposed to any slowdown in consumer spending or rise in interest costs. We pass.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EYE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Distribution$18.92-8.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-28Distribution$20.73+34.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 34.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
