Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.01, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.85 USD
Fair value26.75
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup17.94-0.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-21Read Accumulation17.03+4.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown16.41+8.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.44+15.6% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $17.85. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$17.85
Valuation
26.13 trailing · 13.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.86%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
National Vision Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 51% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $26.75 fair value, weak competitive moat, 2.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $26.75, with a range of $19.87 to $33.12, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Specs Chain Trips Over Debt Load
Picture a family picking up new glasses at a strip-mall chain. The purchase feels ordinary, yet the retailer behind the counter carries a debt burden that our ethical screen simply will not accept. National Vision therefore fails at the first gate, regardless of any apparent discount to our internal value.
The numbers do not rescue the story. Revenue growth of just 7 percent, a 2 percent profit margin and 5 percent ROE all point to a weak moat in a crowded retail lane. A forward multiple of 17.5 times offers no cushion once the debt constraint is recognised, and the buy-rated analyst targets sit outside our mandate.
High leverage remains the binding risk, leaving the business exposed to any slowdown in consumer spending or rise in interest costs. We pass.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EYE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Markup$17.85-0.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Markup · changed$17.94+10.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$16.20+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$16.20-4.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-10-14Markdown$16.63+1.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$16.41-13.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-08-28Distribution$18.92-8.7%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-28Distribution$20.73+34.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 34.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.44+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $29.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
