Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.04, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.74 USD
Fair value20.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation15.79+18.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-09-12Read Markdown16.42+14.1% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-12Read Markup14.88+25.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution13.85+35.3% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $18.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 162 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 162 days
Price at the screen
$18.74
Valuation
9.76 trailing · 8.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.14
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sally Beauty Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 6% discount to our $20.00 fair value, 0.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $20.00, with a range of $20.00 to $37.48, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beauty chain looks cheap but carries a trap
Walk into any Sally Beauty store and the shelves tell a simple story. Professional stylists and weekend DIYers still need hair colour and tools, yet the whole category moves with consumer wallets and economic mood. At 6.6 times forward earnings the shares appear inexpensive next to 24 percent return on equity, yet the 2 percent revenue growth already signals the business is not outrunning inflation or shifting habits.
We pass. The low multiple on a consumer cyclical name often masks peak earnings rather than a genuine bargain, and the unknown moat leaves little protection if discounters or online platforms take more share. Analyst targets sit at 17 dollars while our own fair value of 20 dollars still fails to clear the opportunity bar we set for this sector.
Currency swings, rent pressure and sudden drops in salon visits remain real threats that a single-digit earnings multiple rarely prices in fully. Ethical screens clear, but that alone does not turn a slow-growth retailer into a durable holding.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SBH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$18.74-2.6%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Accumulation$19.24+7.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$17.90-1.4%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$18.15+3.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$17.62+9.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-21Accumulation$16.11+1.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-14Accumulation$15.90+0.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$16.42+10.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$14.88+7.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $16.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
