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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
RHRH
RH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.4B · 6,510 employees
RH, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and lifestyle brand in the home furnishings market in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, and Spain.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
137.43 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price137.43 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.24)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 137.43 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 173.33, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price137.43 USD
Fair value173.33
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown148.57-7.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-03Read Distribution148.57-7.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 24% slide in 3 weeks
2026-08-11Read Markup196.15-29.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 28% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation153.04-10.2% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
RH holds its Accumulation at $137.43. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$137.43
Valuation
22.62 trailing · 15.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
82.08%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 82.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
RH's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 82% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today RH does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury Furniture Chain Priced for Better Days
Picture a homeowner in a quiet suburb upgrading their living room with a $5,000 sofa just as mortgage rates climb and housing turnover slows. RH sits at the centre of that discretionary spend, yet revenue is already shrinking 2 percent and margins sit at just 3 percent. The shares trade at 20.3 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 179.51 against a current price of 187.88, leaving no margin of safety.
We pass because the numbers do not add up. Seventeen analysts carry a hold rating with a median target of 155, and nothing in the recent results suggests the market is wrong. The business carries an unknown moat in a category where style trends shift quickly and big-ticket purchases can be postponed for years. Ethical screens clear, but valuation and growth do not.
The real risk is the cycle itself. Home furnishings demand peaks late and falls hard when rates stay elevated or wealth effects reverse, so a low multiple would be the warning sign rather than a bargain. At current levels the price simply assumes a recovery that has yet to appear in the order book.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$128.01+15.3%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown$110.99-12.3%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$126.54-14.8%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-10Markdown$148.57+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markdown$148.57+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markdown$148.57+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markdown$148.57+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markdown$148.57+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$148.57+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $157. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.