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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo ADR
SBS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $18.7B · 8,927 employees
Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP provides basic and environmental sanitation services in the São Paulo State, Brazil.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.31 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-18
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo ADR holds its Accumulation at $5.31. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$5.31
Valuation
11.54 trailing · 12.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
20.79%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 20.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.50%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Sao Paulo Taps Look Cheap But We Pass
When a Sao Paulo household turns on the tap the water still has to come from somewhere. SABESP runs the pipes and sewage plants across the state and the numbers look tidy. Revenue growth sits at 18 percent with a 22 percent profit margin and 21 percent ROE yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
A forward multiple of 10.4 times and a 31 percent gap to our fair value of 7.55 dollars would normally catch the eye. The narrow moat and clean ethical screen add to the case on paper. Still the business sits inside a single emerging market state where regulation and politics can shift the returns faster than the numbers suggest.
Currency moves and local political risk remain the real variables here. A regulated water utility rarely escapes those pressures even when the reported margins look solid. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SBS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markup · changed$5.09-7.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-12Markdown · changed$5.52+1.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Distribution$5.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Distribution$5.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$5.46Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
