Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price56.21 USD
Fair value52.92
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Accumulation58.15-3.3% to today
2026-08-06Read Markup57.44-2.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown52.95+6.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Middlesex Water Company holds its Markdown at $56.21. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$56.21
Valuation
21.70 trailing · 18.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.52%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Water flows every day but the price is too high
Every time a tap turns on in New Jersey the cash registers at Middlesex Water ring with regulated returns. The business is simple, stable and passes our ethical screen without issue. Yet the shares sit 9 percent above our fair value, and a 19 times forward earnings multiple on just 9 percent return on equity offers little margin for error.
Revenue is growing at 10 percent and margins sit at a respectable 22 percent, yet those numbers do not change the fact that the market already prices in steady growth. Two analysts see a median target of 60 dollars, but that still leaves scant upside once the premium is paid. We pass because the numbers do not justify stretching for a regulated utility.
Interest-rate moves can compress multiples quickly in this sector, and the unknown moat adds another layer of uncertainty. The low opportunity rating simply reflects that reality. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MSEX trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$57.44+8.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Markdown$52.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$52.95Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.