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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
American States Water Company
AWR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.3B · 900 employees
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
84.44 USD
Price as of 28 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-28 · the tape above runs as of 07:23 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price84.44 USD at the 28 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 4.02)
Last reviewed28 Oct 2026 (2 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 84.44 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 70.50, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.02, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price84.44 USD
Fair value70.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Markup82.14+2.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-24Read Markdown84.85-0.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-22Read Accumulation87.39-3.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 12% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown77.77+8.6% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American States Water Company holds its Markup at $84.44. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$84.44
Valuation
22.50 trailing · 21.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.86%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American States Water's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 35% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when AWR's ethical verdict changes
Today AWR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Taps flow steady but this price tag does not
Every time a household turns on the tap in California the bill lands with American States Water. The business earns a solid 20% profit margin and grows revenue at 14%, yet the shares trade at $89 against a fair value of $66, a 25% premium with no opportunity rating attached. Forward earnings sit at 23.6 times, well above what a regulated utility normally commands.
The ethical screen clears without issue and ROE holds at a respectable 13%. Two analysts see a median target of $76, still below the current quote, so nothing in the numbers suggests the market has mispriced a bargain.
Valuation risk sits front and centre here. Pay too much for steady cash flows and even reliable water assets can trap capital for years. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AWR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$84.44+2.8%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$82.14+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$82.14-0.7%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-10-20Markdown$82.74+0.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-10-13Markdown$82.26-3.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-10-02Markdown$84.85+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$84.85-2.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-22Markdown$89.28+14.8%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Markdown$77.77+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $76.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
