2026-10-25
Permian Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:14 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Permian Resources Holdings Inc
PR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $21.6B · 515 employees
Permian Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States.
Not yet scored24.56 USD
Price as of 2 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-02 · the tape above runs as of 20:14 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price24.56 USD at the 2 Nov 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.15)
- Last reviewed2 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $22.50 to $27.99, base estimate $24.34 (screen dated 2026-11-02).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.15, read 2026-11-02
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price24.56 USD
Fair value24.34
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation23.61+4.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown21.97+11.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 11% rise in 8 weeks
2026-08-09Read Accumulation19.73+24.5% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Distribution19.51+25.9% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Permian Resources Holdings Inc holds its Accumulation at $24.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days |
| Price at the screen | $24.56 |
| Valuation | 16.95 trailing · 10.53 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.65 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 20.55% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 20.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 1.13% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 1.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Permian Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Permian Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $24.34, with a range of $22.50 to $27.99, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil patch cycles rarely reward the patient
Think of the Permian as a crowded poker table where every hand is dealt by crude prices that swing hard. Permian Resources sits there with a narrow moat, single-digit revenue growth and a 7 percent return on equity that hardly covers the cost of capital. At 9.8 times forward earnings the shares look cheap, yet that multiple simply reflects peak-cycle margins rather than any durable edge.
We pass. The modest 5 percent margin of safety to our fair value offers little cushion once oil prices normalise, and the business shows no sign of escaping the narrow-moat trap that defines most shale producers. Analyst targets sit higher, but those forecasts embed the same cyclical assumptions that have burned investors in prior downturns.
Commodity exposure remains the dominant risk. A sustained drop in realised prices would compress cash flow quickly, while the low return on equity leaves little room for error on costs or well performance. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.5xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 17.0xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 1.52 |
| EPS, forward | 2.45 |
| Revenue growth | +55.1%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 21.5%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 11.4%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 2.12% |
| Dividend yield | 318.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.26minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 0.62below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.65steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.04% |
| 52-week range | 12.07 - 25.96 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $21.6B |
| Employees | 515 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradePR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03
Accumulation $26.02
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $26.02
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $26.02
+1.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $25.77
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $25.77
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $25.77
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $25.77
+9.1% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Accumulation · changed $23.61
+2.5% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-10-14
Markdown $23.03
+4.8% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $21.97
-7.8% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 47%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $26.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | David Taylor | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-15 | David Taylor | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-12 | David Taylor | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-12 | David Taylor | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-12 | David Taylor | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $20.15 | -1.7% | · | $983 | -1.7% |
| 2 months | $20.66 | -4.1% | · | $959 | -4.1% |
| 3 months | $18.91 | +4.7% | $0.16 | $1,056 | +5.6% |
| 6 months | $14.39 | +37.6% | $0.31 | $1,398 | +39.8% |
| 1 year | $13.47 | +47.0% | $0.61 | $1,515 | +51.5% |
| 2 years | $14.59 | +35.7% | $1.12 | $1,434 | +43.4% |
| 3 years | $9.24 | +114.3% | $1.69 | $2,325 | +132.5% |
| 5 years | $5.79 | +242.2% | $1.89 | $3,749 | +274.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PR does next, these words stay.
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