Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
APA Corporation holds its Accumulation at $44.84. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 85 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 85 days
Price at the screen
$44.84
Valuation
9.46 trailing · 10.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.3
Beta
0.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.84%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.28%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $40.34 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 9.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil explorers look cheap until prices crash
When crude prices surge, the cash flows look irresistible and multiples compress fast. APA trades at 8.9 times forward earnings with 26% ROE and 18% margins, yet revenue already fell 12% and the moat stays only moderate. It clears the ethical screen, but that does not change the cyclical math.
The low multiple sits on what appear to be peak earnings rather than a durable edge. Shares sit above our fair value at a negative margin of safety, and 24 analysts cluster around a hold rating with a median target of 41. In this sector the cheap headline often marks the top of the cycle, not an entry point.
Currency swings, reserve write-downs and sudden spending cuts remain live threats that can erase the apparent bargain in a single quarter. The numbers do not scream opportunity once the cycle lens is applied.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$36.53+3.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-21Markdown · changed$35.22-3.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Markup$36.57+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-17Markup$36.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 106%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Markup$36.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$36.57Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.