2026-10-25
Antero Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Antero Resources Corp
AR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.0B · 632 employees
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States.
Not yet scored39.93 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 23:21 UTC · 4 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price39.93 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.67)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (2 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $36.00 to $51.14, base estimate $44.47 (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.67, read 2026-11-03
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price39.93 USD
Fair value44.47
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Accumulation36.44+9.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-21Read Markdown35.59+12.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-21Read Accumulation36.82+8.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-21Read Markdown33.57+18.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
Antero Resources Corp holds its Accumulation at $39.93. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 371 days |
| Price at the screen | $39.93 |
| Valuation | 11.22 trailing · 8.36 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.54 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 26.62% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 26.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 0.25% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 0.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Antero Resources clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Antero Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $44.47 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 12.60% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.2% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $44.47, with a range of $36.00 to $51.14, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsNatural gas explorer sits in a classic trap
Picture a drill crew in Appalachia ramping up hard when gas prices spike, only to idle rigs the moment they fall. Antero Resources lives inside that exact cycle, pulling natural gas and liquids from US shale.
The stock trades at 7.9 times forward earnings with 34 percent revenue growth and a 26 percent gap to our fair value. Yet that low multiple flags peak cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Narrow moat, 17 percent profit margins and a clean ethical pass do not remove the trap.
Commodity swings can erase those returns fast, and 13 percent ROE leaves little buffer when prices turn. Analyst targets at 49 dollars assume the good times last. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 8.4xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 11.2xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 3.48 |
| EPS, forward | 4.67 |
| Revenue growth | +12.6%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 18.7%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 14.2%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 3.26% |
| Debt to equity | 0.55moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 0.40below 1: short-term bills exceed liquid assets |
| Beta | 0.54steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.04% |
| 52-week range | 29.10 - 45.75 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $12.0B |
| Employees | 632 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeAR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Accumulation $39.93
+2.3% Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $39.04
+0.0% Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $39.04
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $39.04
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $39.04
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $39.04
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation $39.04
+7.1% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Accumulation $36.44
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Accumulation $36.44
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Accumulation · changed $36.44
+1.5% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Antero Resources (AR) Stock Climbs On Q3 Earnings And Cash Cost Gains Yahoo Finance · 5d ago
- EQT (EQT) Deal Sparks Fresh Marcellus And Utica Takeover Talk Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Antero Resources Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Antero Resources (AR) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Antero Midstream (AM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 50K–100K |
| 2026-10-19 | Dave McCormick | Republican | sell | 250K–500K |
| 2026-10-15 | David Taylor | Republican | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-15 | David Taylor | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-10-15 | David Taylor | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $36.59 | -2.9% | · | $971 | -2.9% |
| 2 months | $37.89 | -6.2% | · | $938 | -6.2% |
| 3 months | $40.35 | -12.0% | · | $881 | -12.0% |
| 6 months | $35.95 | -1.2% | · | $988 | -1.2% |
| 1 year | $38.39 | -7.5% | · | $926 | -7.5% |
| 2 years | $35.22 | +0.9% | · | $1,009 | +0.9% |
| 3 years | $21.31 | +66.7% | · | $1,667 | +66.7% |
| 5 years | $14.10 | +152.0% | · | $2,520 | +152.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AR does next, these words stay.
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