Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation holds its Accumulation at $374.06. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$374.06
Valuation
47.77 trailing · 5.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.1
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.25%
Below 5%
Only 2.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $504.98 fair value, strong competitive moat, 31.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Permian royalties at a tempting multiple
Picture a rancher collecting a cut every time oil flows beneath his land. Texas Pacific Land sits on that exact setup across the Permian, delivering 21 percent revenue growth, 60 percent profit margins and 36 percent return on equity with a strong moat protecting the royalty stream.
Those numbers justify the 28 percent margin of safety at the current price, yet the 5.7 times forward earnings multiple flashes a classic cyclical warning. Peak oil prices can inflate earnings and compress the multiple at the same time, leaving investors holding a value trap once volumes or prices roll over.
Only two analysts cover the name and they sit on a hold rating with a lower target, underscoring the limited visibility that comes with energy cycles. Ethical screen cleared. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
2026-07-18Markdown$389.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (2 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $445.
2026-07-03Markdown$389.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$389.79Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
