TPL
Texas Pacific Land Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production · US
$386.50
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

STRONG MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$26.7B
Trailing P/E
52.95
Forward P/E
5.29
Rev Growth
+20.8%
Profit Margin
60.0%
ROE
36.5%
Analyst Target
$445.00
Recommendation
HOLD
About Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land. The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties. The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 33,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 224,000 NRA located in the Permian Basin. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $387 against a fair value of $1521, a 75% discount. Strong competitive moat. 60% profit margins. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 100% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.01%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.03%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.19%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.02%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 88.1
Score Valuation: 95.0
Score Quality: 92.0
Score Combined: 74.9
Fair Value Est: $1,520.90 · Margin of Safety: +74.6% · Tier: STRONG OPPORTUNITY

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation70.0
Quality100.0
Cash Flow0.0
Moat100.0
Balance Sheet100.0
Debt Purity97.0
Liquid Purity90.7
Rev Purity55.0
Compliance82.8
Tier: GOLD · Score: 80.7 · Rank: #62
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-052.03Pending--
2026-05-062.022.07+2.5%
2026-02-183.601.79-50.2%
2025-11-051.921.76-8.7%
2025-08-062.321.68-27.4%
2024-08-071.791.66-7.1%
2024-05-081.451.66+14.5%
2024-02-211.381.64+18.2%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$236.8M$142.9M$198.6M$208.5M$182.3M2.07
2025-12-31$211.6M$123.3M$190.0M$172.1M$149.2M1.79
2025-09-30$203.1M$121.2M$164.1M$171.7M$149.1M1.76
2025-06-30$187.5M$116.1M$157.4M$165.4M$143.8M1.68
2025-03-31$196.0M$120.7M$166.3M$172.9M$150.1M1.75
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-19HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security2$780.0
2026-05-18HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$385.0
2026-05-15HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$388.0
2026-05-14HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$385.0
2026-05-12HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$394.0
2026-05-11HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security2$803.0
2026-05-08DOYLE PETER BRENDANDirector254--
2026-05-07HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$401.0
2026-05-06HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$419.0
2026-05-05HORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT L.L.C.Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security1$433.0
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC10.0M$4.0B0.1%
Blackrock Inc.6.0M$2.4B0.1%
State Street Corporation3.8M$1.5B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC3.8M$1.5B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC3.1M$1.3B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC1.6M$656.7M0.0%
First Manhattan Co. LLC1.1M$427.3M0.0%
SoftVest Advisors, LLC1.1M$427.0M0.0%
Morgan Stanley964.5K$387.7M0.0%
Invesco Ltd.622.2K$250.1M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
1
2 analysts
2 Months Ago
1
2 analysts
Last Month
1
2 analysts
Current
1
2 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$27.5B
Price/Book
17.82
Beta
0.677
Analysts
2
Total Revenue (TTM)
$839.0M
Total Debt
$18.0M
Earnings Growth
+18.3%
Dividend Yield
0.6%
Rec. Mean
3.00
Short Ratio
8.59
Short % Float
0.1%
Employees
114

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 74.9 (P100 — top 0.0% of scored tickers). Strong Moat. Ethical PASS. 2 analysts at Hold.
Price: $386.50 | Target: $445.00 (+15%) | Fair Value: $1,520.90 (+294%)
Score
75
Moat
STRONG
Conviction
Moderate
Upside
+15%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+20.8%
Profit Margin60.0%
ROE36.5%
Forward P/E5.3
Market Cap$26.7B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-05$2.03Pending
2026-05-06$2.02$2.07+2.5%
2026-02-18$3.60$1.79-50.2%
2025-11-05$1.92$1.76-8.7%
2025-08-06$2.32$1.68-27.4%
2024-08-07$1.79$1.66-7.1%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $328.53 (-15%) | Entry: $386.50
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($445.00, 2 analysts)
10$3,865.05+$585.00 (15%)1.0R
50$19,325.25+$2,925.00 (15%)1.0R
100$38,650.50+$5,850.00 (15%)1.0R
To Fair Value ($1,520.90)
10$3,865.05+$11,343.90 (294%)19.6R
50$19,325.25+$56,719.50 (294%)19.6R
100$38,650.50+$113,439.00 (294%)19.6R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (8.59 days to cover)
The Verdict
Texas Pacific Land Corporation passes all ethical screens, holds a strong competitive moat, is growing revenue at +20.8%, and trades at a 74.6% discount to fair value.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
56.4
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-5.0%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-7.9%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.88
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-52.2%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.6x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
37.5%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
LB0.601
VDE0.579
IYE0.574
XLE0.565
MTDR0.542
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
WSBCO-0.172
SALAM_BAH.AE-0.158
EKTTITAB.AE-0.154
ITHMR.AE-0.153
INDF.JK-0.152
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Feb
Worst Month
Dec
Fri-Mon Effect
0.24762066261135077
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
Beat Drift Positive %
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-8.8%
3M Return
-24.7%
6M Return
+36.2%
12M Return
-5.6%
Momentum Rank
#3301
Momentum Signal
FLAT

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