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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Northwest Natural Holding Company
NWN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B · 1,619 employees
Northwest Natural Holding Company, through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, provides regulated natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
51.75 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 18:05 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price51.75 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price51.75 USD
Fair value41.69
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Accumulation47.73+8.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markdown50.39+2.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Distribution49.86+3.8% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Northwest Natural Holding Company holds its Markup at $51.75. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$51.75
Valuation
17.22 trailing · 15.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.51%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Northwest Natural's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when NWN's ethical verdict changes
Today NWN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $41.69 fair value estimate, 3.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $41.69, with a range of $41.69 to $47.94, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas bills stay steady but earnings growth does not
Picture a winter heating bill that lands on the doormat every month without fail. Northwest Natural supplies the gas behind those bills across the Pacific Northwest, yet its revenue has slipped 1 percent and returns on equity sit at just 8 percent. At 15.9 times forward earnings the shares already price in more stability than the figures support.
We pass. The stock trades 17 percent above our fair value of 42.65 dollars while the business shows no real growth engine and an unknown competitive edge. A regulated utility can look calm on paper, but these numbers do not justify stretching the valuation further.
The sector carries cyclical risk that low multiples often mask rather than remove. Peak demand or shifting energy policy can turn what appears to be dependable earnings into a trap that leaves capital tied up for years. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NWN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$51.31+2.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$50.20+0.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$49.93+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$49.93+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$49.93+0.1%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$49.87+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$49.87+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$49.87+2.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$48.80+2.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $58. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
