NAS10026,990+1.35%S&P7,377+0.31%GOLD$4,075−0.94%BTC$75,727−0.03%VIX25.64−9.01%latest tape · as of 18:05 UTC
The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
SPH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.1B · 3,190 employees
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
17.18 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 18:05 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price17.18 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Fair value17.00. Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 3.01, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.18 USD
Fair value17.00Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-06Read Markup17.22-0.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-15Read Accumulation17.09+0.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-13Read Markdown17.57-2.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-13Read Distribution17.71-3.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. holds its Markup at $17.18. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$17.18
Valuation
8.92 trailing · 8.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.35
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SPH's ethical verdict changes
Today SPH does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $17.00 fair value estimate, 0.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.1% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near the screened price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $17.00, with a range of $15.30 to $21.97, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Propane distributor looks cheap on paper only
Winter heating bills hit every household the same way, yet Suburban Propane shows why energy distribution rarely rewards patient capital. Revenue fell 6 percent last year while the shares trade at 9.2 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 14.26 dollars against a current price of 18.12. A 19 percent return on equity and 10 percent profit margin look solid until the single analyst hold rating and 17 dollar median target remind us the market already prices in modest prospects.
The low multiple is the classic cyclical trap rather than a bargain. Peak earnings from cold snaps or supply squeezes shrink fast when temperatures moderate or crude prices drop, leaving investors with shrinking cash flows and a still-elevated entry price. Ethical screens clear, yet the absence of any opportunity rating confirms the arithmetic does not support ownership.
Currency swings and weather remain outside management control, and the unknown competitive moat offers little defence when volumes contract. Forward revenue trends already point down, so the apparent value evaporates precisely when the cycle turns.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SPH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-07Markup$17.18-0.2%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-06Markup · changed$17.22+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Accumulation$17.22-4.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$18.01+5.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-22Accumulation$17.02-0.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$16.75-4.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-13Markdown · changed$17.57-0.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Markup$17.86+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
