NAS10030,534+0.17%S&P7,733−0.41%GOLD$4,322−1.25%BTC$84,521−1.92%VIX14.67−1.34%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P.
SPH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.1B · 3,190 employees
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
16.75 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 16.75 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 17.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.75 USD
Fair value17.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-13Read Markdown17.57-4.7% to today ✓
2026-08-13Read Distribution17.71-5.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup17.86-6.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. holds its Markdown at $16.75. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 381 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 381 days
Price at the screen
$16.75
Valuation
8.68 trailing · 8.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
57.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 57.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near the screened price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Propane distributor looks cheap on paper only
Winter heating bills hit every household the same way, yet Suburban Propane shows why energy distribution rarely rewards patient capital. Revenue fell 6 percent last year while the shares trade at 9.2 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 14.26 dollars against a current price of 18.12. A 19 percent return on equity and 10 percent profit margin look solid until the single analyst hold rating and 17 dollar median target remind us the market already prices in modest prospects.
The low multiple is the classic cyclical trap rather than a bargain. Peak earnings from cold snaps or supply squeezes shrink fast when temperatures moderate or crude prices drop, leaving investors with shrinking cash flows and a still-elevated entry price. Ethical screens clear, yet the absence of any opportunity rating confirms the arithmetic does not support ownership.
Currency swings and weather remain outside management control, and the unknown competitive moat offers little defence when volumes contract. Forward revenue trends already point down, so the apparent value evaporates precisely when the cycle turns.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SPH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-13Markdown · changed$17.57-0.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Markup$17.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Markup$17.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$17.86Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
