Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.02, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.34 USD
Fair value17.87
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Markdown19.34+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation20.91-7.5% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown20.34-4.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 33% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution30.35-36.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Centuri Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $19.34. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 33 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 33 days
Price at the screen
$19.34
Valuation
59.97 trailing · 20.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Centuri Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 39% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CTRI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility crews chase big orders but thin returns
Picture a contractor racing to lay new gas lines whenever a utility green-lights spending. Centuri is that contractor, delivering 32 percent revenue growth yet keeping only a 1 percent profit margin and a 4 percent return on equity. At 28.4 times forward earnings the shares already sit 19 percent above our fair value, so the growth has already been priced in.
We pass because this is a cyclical services business dressed up as steady utilities work. Peak order books produce peak earnings, and the low multiple investors sometimes chase in downturns is absent here. The market’s buy ratings and 36 dollar targets ignore how quickly utility budgets can shrink when interest rates or regulation shift.
Ethical screens clear, yet the combination of expensive valuation, wafer-thin returns and cyclical demand makes the risk of capital loss too high for the modest growth on offer. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CTRI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markdown · changed$19.34-2.3%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$19.79+0.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-10-18Accumulation$19.76-5.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$20.34-14.7%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-08-26Distribution$23.85-13.9%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-25Distribution$27.70-8.7%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-18Distribution$30.35+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-03Distribution$30.35+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$30.35Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
