Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.58, read 2026-10-28
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price77.93 USD
Fair value64.22
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation75.60+3.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown71.71+8.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markup80.41-3.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-08-07Read Distribution79.62-2.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ONE Gas, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $77.93. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 567 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 567 days
Price at the screen
$77.93
Valuation
16.26 trailing · 15.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
ONE Gas, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas Utility Trades Above Its Real Worth
When the heating bills land in winter, the gas still flows through the same pipes it always did. ONE Gas sits in that steady regulated business, yet its shares sit 16% above our fair value and revenue is already falling 11%. Forward earnings look reasonable at 15.8 times, but the low 8% return on equity and unknown moat give little reason to pay up.
We pass. The stock fails to clear our valuation test and carries the classic signs of a cyclical value trap, where a modest multiple simply reflects peak earnings that may not hold when volumes or rates shift. Analyst targets at 91 dollars ignore the negative growth trend and the thin margin of safety.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and modest profitability, even though the ethical screen clears. Regulated utilities can look safe until demand or allowed returns change. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OGS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$75.60+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$75.60+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$75.60+4.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-10-14Markdown$72.50+1.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$71.71-10.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-09-08Markup · changed$80.41+1.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-07-18Markdown$77.78+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-07-03Markdown$77.78+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
