The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
SWX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.2B · 2,453 employees
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, Southwest Gas Corporation, purchases, distributes, and transports natural gas for residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Arizona, Nevada, and California…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
86.11 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $86.11. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 261 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 261 days
Price at the screen
$86.11
Valuation
22.14 trailing · 17.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.08%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas Bills Keep Rising but This Utility Does Not
Picture the monthly bill arriving in a Las Vegas suburb, the one that quietly funds pipes and storage across three states. Southwest Gas sits at the centre of that flow yet trades well above our fair value with revenue already down 22 percent and return on equity stuck at just 6 percent. The forward multiple of 18.8 times offers no margin of safety and the strong-buy analyst chorus has not altered the arithmetic.
We pass because the business shows the classic cyclical trap in regulated utilities. Earnings can look steady until volumes or allowed returns shift, at which point a seemingly reasonable multiple quickly reveals itself as peak-cycle pricing. Low growth and thin capital returns leave little room for error once interest rates or weather patterns move.
Ethical screens clear, yet the combination of negative top-line momentum and stretched valuation leaves no compelling case. The market price already bakes in optimism that the numbers do not support.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SWX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-14Markdown$92.40+3.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-18Markdown$89.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-03Markdown$89.01+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$89.01Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
