Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price71.96 USD
Fair value62.49
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Markdown73.16-1.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation73.50-2.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Black Hills Corporation holds its Accumulation at $71.96. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$71.96
Valuation
18.13 trailing · 15.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.25%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.74%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady utility bills hide a value trap
Black Hills keeps the lights on and the gas flowing across the Midwest, yet the numbers tell a different story from the steady image. Revenue is already shrinking at 3 percent, returns on equity sit at just 8 percent, and the shares trade well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. In a cyclical sector, a forward multiple of 16 times rarely signals a bargain; it often marks peak earnings that will not last.
The company clears our ethical screen with no red flags on governance or operations, and five analysts still call it a strong buy with an $86 median target. That optimism rests on regulated returns, yet it ignores how quickly demand and commodity costs can turn against gas utilities when the cycle shifts.
Risk sits in the combination of negative growth and an elevated valuation that leaves little room for disappointment. Regulated assets can feel defensive until volumes fall or allowed returns get squeezed, and both outcomes remain live possibilities here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BKH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markdown · changed$73.16-1.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-23Accumulation$74.61+1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-18Accumulation$73.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-03Accumulation$73.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$73.50Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.