The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
New Jersey Resources Corporation
NJR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.5B · 1,300 employees
New Jersey Resources Corporation, an energy services holding company, distributes natural gas.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
53.78 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
New Jersey Resources Corporation holds its Markdown at $53.78. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$53.78
Valuation
14.90 trailing · 15.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas bills keep rising but this utility does not
Every winter when New Jersey homes crank up the heating, New Jersey Resources moves the gas through its pipes and collects steady regulated returns. The business is simple distribution plus a few clean energy side bets, yet the shares sit at $58.60 against our fair value of $42.12. Revenue creeps along at just 3 percent, the forward multiple is already 16.8 times, and return on equity is a modest 13 percent. We see no opportunity here.
The stock earns a clean ethical pass and carries a buy label from seven analysts, but those views ignore the cyclical trap. Regulated gas utilities look stable until demand flattens or allowed returns get squeezed by regulators. A low multiple on peak earnings is not a bargain; it is a warning that the good years may already be in the price.
Currency and commodity swings add further noise, while growth remains capped by slow volume trends. The margin of safety is negative 28 percent and nothing in the numbers suggests that gap will close soon. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NJR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$57.89+5.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Accumulation$55.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Accumulation$55.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$55.09Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
