Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Mastercard logoMastercard MA

Outside both standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.

The label
Markup

read at $539.66

Mastercard holds its Markup at $539.66.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the buyers, held for 64 days
Price$539.66
Valuation31.21 trailing · 23.67 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta0.73

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $497.22 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 15.80% revenue growth.

Read at
$539.66
31.21 P/E · 23.67 fwd
Our fair value
$497.22
8% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$652.50
+21% to current
Target low $550.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $735.00
▲ current $539.66 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$765$545$325TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$735.00 +50%Analyst avg$652.50 +33%Our fair value$497.22 +2%Conservative$495.00 +1%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$539.66
you are here
Conservative
$495.00
-8%
Analyst avg
$652.50
+21%
Our fair value
$497.22
-8%
Analyst high
$735.00
+36%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth15.80%
Profit margin45.88%
Debt to equity282.06
Analyst consensusStrong Buy · 38 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Business activity: Financials sector Fail

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Card Network Powers Payments But Fails Ethics

Every time a shopper taps a card in London or settles a bill in Lagos, Mastercard sits in the middle of the transaction. The business shows real strength with 16% revenue growth, 46% profit margins and 232% ROE, plus a wide moat that keeps competitors at bay.

We pass because it fails the ethical screen on business activity and trades at $543.60 against a $497.19 fair value, giving a negative margin of safety at 23.9 times forward earnings.

Analyst targets sit higher, yet the ethical breach and stretched valuation outweigh the numbers. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E23.7x
priced for continued growth
Trailing P/E31.2x
a premium valuation
Revenue growth15.8%
steady growth
Profit margin45.9%
highly profitable on every dollar of sales
Return on equity232.1%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity2.82
heavy leverage — higher risk if revenue softens
Current ratio0.98
below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets
Beta0.73
steadier than the market
Market cap$476.8B
Employees39,800

The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on MA

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in MA's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

MA trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-30 · Markup

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-30 Markup · changed $539.66 +0.0% Entry 10

The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-28 Distribution $539.66 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-27 Distribution $539.66 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-26 Distribution $539.66 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-25 Distribution $539.66 -0.7% Entry 6

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-24 Distribution $543.60 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-23 Distribution $543.60 +10.7% Entry 4

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Distribution $491.08 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647.

2026-07-03 Distribution $491.08 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Distribution $491.08 Entry 1

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · MA
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-02-27 SACHIN J. MEHRA Chief Financial Officer 22,648 ·
2026-02-27 ARKELL SANDRA A Officer 923 ·
2026-02-27 VOSBURG CRAIG Officer 17,730 ·
2026-02-27 VERMA RICHARD R Officer 1,958 ·
2026-02-27 HUNTSMAN JON M JR Officer 1,997 ·
2026-02-27 LING HAI Officer 9,607 ·
2026-02-27 LAMBERT JORN Officer 6,991 ·
2026-02-27 KRAMER JILL Officer 1,860 ·
2026-02-27 KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA Officer 11,101 ·
2026-02-27 MUIGAI SUSAN W Officer 1,469 ·

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming MA
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
9 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat sell 15K–50K
9 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat sell 1K–15K
9 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat sell 15K–50K
9 Apr2026 Josh Gottheimer Democrat sell 15K–50K
8 May2026 Rick Allen Republican buy 1K–15K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $497.81 -1.8% · $983 -1.8%
2 months $498.66 -1.9% · $981 -1.9%
3 months $496.46 -1.5% $0.87 $987 -1.3%
6 months $561.56 -12.9% $1.74 $874 -12.6%
1 year $586.08 -16.6% $3.26 $840 -16.0%
2 years $444.00 +10.2% $6.10 $1,115 +11.5%
3 years $362.78 +34.8% $8.56 $1,372 +37.2%
5 years $355.02 +37.8% $12.54 $1,413 +41.3%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MA does next, these words stay.

Mastercard · MA · Markup · $539.66
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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