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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
American Express
AXP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $217.1B · 76,800 employees
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Cana…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
332.59 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 10:12 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price332.59 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-15
Options put/call open interest 0.23, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price332.59 USD
Fair value332.76
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation313.87+6.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown308.89+7.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Distribution331.15+0.4% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown310.66+7.1% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Express holds its Accumulation at $332.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$332.59
Valuation
18.24 trailing · 16.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American Express does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AXP's ethical verdict changes
Today AXP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $332.76 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 11.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.1% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $332.76, with a range of $296.10 to $382.68, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Credit Card Giant With Ethical Concerns
Imagine a world where every hotel, restaurant, and luxury retailer accepts just one card. That's the dream American Express sells. It's a dream that's resonating, with revenue growth of 13% and a hefty profit margin of 16%. Yet, when the card is swiped, American Express fails our ethical screen, a red flag in today's socially conscious climate. Why it stands out - a forward P/E of 16.5x and a ROE of 34% are impressive numbers, especially with the company's moderate moat, suggesting it's doing something right in payments. But the ethical fail is a shadow on this card's shine.
However, the market is bullish on American Express, with 25 analysts giving it a buy consensus and a median target of $382, significantly higher than the current price. The numbers hint at a company performing well, but our ethical concerns make us wary. Risk sits in the ethical grey area, with the company failing our business activity screen, and despite the financial allure, we cannot overlook the ethical red flags.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Accumulation$323.71+3.1%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362.
2026-10-23Accumulation$313.87+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$313.87+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$313.87+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$313.87+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$313.87+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$313.87+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$313.87+1.8%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$308.17-0.2%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
