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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
American Express
AXP · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $220.2B · 76,800 employees
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Cana…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
326.10 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
American Express holds its Markdown at $326.10. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$326.10
Valuation
19.80 trailing · 16.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $341.85 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 12.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Credit Card Giant With Ethical Concerns
Imagine a world where every hotel, restaurant, and luxury retailer accepts just one card. That's the dream American Express sells. It's a dream that's resonating, with revenue growth of 13% and a hefty profit margin of 16%. Yet, when the card is swiped, American Express fails our ethical screen, a red flag in today's socially conscious climate. Why it stands out - a forward P/E of 16.5x and a ROE of 34% are impressive numbers, especially with the company's moderate moat, suggesting it's doing something right in payments. But the ethical fail is a shadow on this card's shine.
However, the market is bullish on American Express, with 25 analysts giving it a buy consensus and a median target of $382, significantly higher than the current price. The numbers hint at a company performing well, but our ethical concerns make us wary. Risk sits in the ethical grey area, with the company failing our business activity screen, and despite the financial allure, we cannot overlook the ethical red flags.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXP trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362.
2026-07-24Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$355.35+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markdown$355.35+14.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 14.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $362. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$310.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
