Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-15
Options put/call open interest 0.81, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price422.59 USD
Fair value351.04
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Markup413.59+2.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 8 days
2026-10-26Read Accumulation391.43+8.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since October
2026-10-18Read Markup391.43+8.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation367.38+15.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Visa Inc. holds its Markup at $422.59. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days
Price at the screen
$422.59
Valuation
33.32 trailing · 23.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.77
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Visa does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when V's ethical verdict changes
Today V does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $351.04 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 37 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $351.04, with a range of $297.00 to $403.70, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Payment Giant Visa's Ethical Shortfall
Paying with Visa has become as ubiquitous as breathing air in many parts of the world. But as transactions flow seamlessly across its network, it's easy to overlook the ethical implications. Visa operates VisaNet, the backbone of a global payment system that facilitates millions of transactions every day, authorizing, clearing, and settling payments with speed and efficiency. Yet, despite its financial prowess, Visa falls short on ethical grounds, failing our business activity screen.
Why Visa stands out, or in this case, why we pass on it, is not solely about the numbers. The revenue growth is a robust 14%, profit margin exceeds the 50% mark, and ROE is an impressive 61%. The moat is strong, and 37 analysts have a consensus rating of strong buy, with a median target price of $420. But numbers alone do not tell the full story. Visa fails our ethical screen, a critical component of our investment thesis.
Risks here are not about market volatility or financial performance but about the alignment of business practices with our ethical standards. The market may be pricing Visa with a forward P/E of 24.4x, but ethical investing requires a broader perspective. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
V trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup · changed$413.59+5.7%Entry 24
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399.
2026-10-27Accumulation$391.43+0.0%Entry 23
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markup$391.43+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$391.43+6.5%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (35 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $399.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
