An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Capital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United Stat…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $202.84
Capital One holds its Markup at $202.84.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days
Price
$202.84
Valuation
11.17 trailing · 8.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.02
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 52% discount to our $307.58 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Read at
$202.84
11.17 P/E · 8.44 fwd
Our fair value
$307.58
52% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$254.50
+25% to current
Target low $214.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $310.00
▲ current $202.84 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$202.84
you are here
Conservative
$270.49
+33%
Analyst avg
$254.50
+25%
Our fair value
$307.58
+52%
Analyst high
$310.00
+53%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Profit margin
21.87%
Analyst consensus
Buy · 22 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Capital One fails the ethical test outright
Every time a shopper carries a balance on their credit card the bank earns from interest that can weigh heavy on households. We pass on Capital One because it fails our ethical screen on business activity and that alone rules it out.
The numbers show a forward price to earnings ratio of 8.6 times alongside 46 percent revenue growth yet the return on equity is only 3 percent with profit margins at 9 percent. A narrow moat and weak returns leave the cheap multiple looking less attractive than it first appears.
Risk sits in the ethical failure plus thin profitability that offers little cushion when consumer credit turns. This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
COF trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-21 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Markdown$208.03+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markdown$208.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markdown$208.03+15.1%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 15.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $255. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markdown$180.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$180.67Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
