LKQ Corporation engages in the distribution of replacement parts, components, and systems used in the repair and maintenance of vehicles and specialty vehicle aftermarket products and accessories.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
24.11 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 19:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
LKQ Corporation holds its Markdown at $24.11. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$24.11
Valuation
13.39 trailing · 7.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.23%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 62.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto Parts Supplier Sits in a Cyclical Trap
Picture a garage full of mechanics waiting for the next wave of repairs. LKQ supplies those parts across North America and Europe, yet revenue is growing just 4 percent while margins sit at 4 percent and return on equity reaches only 8 percent. The low 7.6 times forward earnings multiple reflects exactly that modest outlook, not a bargain.
We pass because the business is a classic cyclical value trap. Peak earnings in a strong used-car and repair cycle can flatter the multiple, only for volumes and pricing to fall sharply when consumer spending on vehicles slows. Analysts see no consensus rating and little upside from current levels once the cycle turns.
Ethical screens clear without issue, yet the combination of thin returns, slow growth and sector swings keeps any real margin of safety out of reach. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LKQ trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-08-04Distribution$25.82-1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Distribution$26.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Distribution$26.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$26.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.