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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Lear Corporation
LEA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.7B · 164,300 employees
Lear Corporation designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, assembles, and supplies automotive seating, and electrical distribution systems and related components for automotive original equipment manufacturers in North…
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Lear Corporation holds its Distribution at $130.82. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 78 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 78 days
Price at the screen
$130.82
Valuation
12.18 trailing · 7.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto Parts Maker Trading Like a Cycle Peak
Picture a factory line building car seats that only runs flat out when new models launch and slams into reverse the moment consumer confidence dips. Lear sits right in that spot. Revenue growth sits at just 5 percent with profit margins of 2 percent, and the 8.1 times forward earnings multiple looks attractive only until you remember these numbers reflect peak cycle demand rather than durable strength.
We pass despite an ethical screen clearance and a calculated fair value well above the current price. Return on equity of 12 percent offers no real buffer once vehicle production volumes turn, and an unknown competitive moat leaves the business exposed to the same pricing pressure that has crushed margins in past downturns. Analyst targets cluster near current levels, underlining limited conviction from the Street.
The low multiple is therefore a warning, not a bargain. Cyclical auto suppliers routinely post depressed earnings right when multiples compress most, and nothing here suggests Lear escapes that trap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LEA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$123.65-15.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 15.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-18Markup$145.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-03Markup$145.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$145.16Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
