2026-10-25
Lear clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 10:09 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Lear Corporation
LEA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.7B · 164,300 employees
Lear Corporation designs, develops, engineers, manufactures, assembles, and supplies automotive seating, and electrical distribution systems and related components for automotive original equipment manufacturers in North…
Not yet scored110.28 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 10:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price110.28 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkdown, as of 7 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.32)
- Last reviewed6 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $178.12 to $228.20, base estimate $178.12 (screen dated 2026-11-06).
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.32, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price110.28 USD
Fair value178.12
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-06Read Markdown114.10-3.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-24Read Accumulation119.99-8.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown121.37-9.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution121.37-9.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Lear Corporation holds its Markdown at $110.28. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 44 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 44 days |
| Price at the screen | $110.28 |
| Valuation | 10.83 trailing · 7.09 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.29 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 19.62% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 19.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 33.25% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Lear clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Lear clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 20%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 36% discount to our $178.12 fair value, 1.60% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.1% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $178.12, with a range of $178.12 to $228.20, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsAuto Parts Maker Trading Like a Cycle Peak
Picture a factory line building car seats that only runs flat out when new models launch and slams into reverse the moment consumer confidence dips. Lear sits right in that spot. Revenue growth sits at just 5 percent with profit margins of 2 percent, and the 8.1 times forward earnings multiple looks attractive only until you remember these numbers reflect peak cycle demand rather than durable strength.
We pass despite an ethical screen clearance and a calculated fair value well above the current price. Return on equity of 12 percent offers no real buffer once vehicle production volumes turn, and an unknown competitive moat leaves the business exposed to the same pricing pressure that has crushed margins in past downturns. Analyst targets cluster near current levels, underlining limited conviction from the Street.
The low multiple is therefore a warning, not a bargain. Cyclical auto suppliers routinely post depressed earnings right when multiples compress most, and nothing here suggests Lear escapes that trap. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 7.1xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 10.8xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 10.96 |
| EPS, forward | 16.74 |
| Revenue growth | +1.6%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 2.5%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 12.7%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 13.09% |
| Dividend yield | 212.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.68moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.18adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 1.29moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 99.00 - 150.33 |
| Market cap | $5.7B |
| Employees | 164,300 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeLEA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06
Markdown · changed $114.10
-2.2% Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $116.69
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $116.69
-2.8% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $119.99
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $119.99
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $119.99
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $119.99
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation · changed $119.99
+0.0% Entry 10
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Markdown $119.99
-1.2% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Markdown $121.49
+0.1% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 53%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Lear (LEA) Appoints Jared Fedele As CFO Effective March 2027 Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Lear (LEA) Could Be 21% Undervalued As Lower Sales Guidance Clouds Earnings Beat Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Lear (LEA) Stock Could Be A Bargain As Shares Fell 25% Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- What Lear (LEA) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- Lear Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Mallett Conrad L Jr | Dir | S - Sale | 1,646 | $199,742 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Suzan DelBene | Democrat | sell | 250K–500K |
| 2026-09-14 | Suzan DelBene | Democrat | sell | 250K–500K |
| 2026-09-14 | Suzan DelBene | Democrat | sell | 250K–500K |
| 2026-09-03 | Suzan DelBene | Democrat | buy | 250K–500K |
| 2026-09-03 | Suzan DelBene | Democrat | buy | 250K–500K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $136.66 | +4.1% | $0.77 | $1,046 | +4.6% |
| 2 months | $123.95 | +14.7% | $0.77 | $1,154 | +15.4% |
| 3 months | $115.05 | +23.6% | $0.77 | $1,243 | +24.3% |
| 6 months | $112.16 | +26.8% | $1.54 | $1,282 | +28.2% |
| 1 year | $92.80 | +53.3% | $3.08 | $1,566 | +56.6% |
| 2 years | $115.96 | +22.7% | $6.16 | $1,280 | +28.0% |
| 3 years | $127.53 | +11.5% | $9.24 | $1,188 | +18.8% |
| 5 years | $170.79 | -16.7% | $15.13 | $921 | -7.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LEA does next, these words stay.
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