Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.15, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price32.58 USD
Fair value24.91
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup27.34+19.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-18Read Accumulation27.47+18.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 12% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution24.55+32.7% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Markdown26.21+24.3% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. holds its Markup at $32.58. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$32.58
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
53.44%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 53.4% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Harley-Davidson,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens. Its receivables are also high.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $24.91 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 30.8% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $24.91, with a range of $17.30 to $28.64, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Harley-Davidson trades above its calculated worth
Picture a long-time rider turning up at the showroom only to find fewer bikes leaving the floor each quarter. Harley-Davidson sits at 13.7 times forward earnings with revenue down 12 percent, profit margins of 5 percent and return on equity at just 7 percent. Fair value sits at 22.23 dollars against a current price of 26.58 dollars, leaving no margin of safety and no opportunity rating.
We pass because the low multiple reflects a cyclical business losing ground rather than an undervalued compounder. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers show a company whose core motorcycle sales are shrinking while LiveWire and finance units have yet to offset the decline.
The real risk lies in peak-cycle earnings being mistaken for a new normal. A further drop in demand or any rise in funding costs could compress multiples further and expose the thin returns already visible on the balance sheet. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HOG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup$34.59+19.4%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score eased.
2026-10-29Markup$28.96+5.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$27.34+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$27.34+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$27.34+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$27.34+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$27.34+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$27.34+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$27.34-0.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $25.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.