Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.07, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price64.30 USD
Fair value56.06
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation53.74+19.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 16% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-09Read Markdown63.74+0.9% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup70.93-9.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Polaris Inc. holds its Markup at $64.30. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 85 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 85 days
Price at the screen
$64.30
Valuation
N/A trailing · 21.70 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.37
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Polaris's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PII does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $56.06 fair value estimate, 10.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.7% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $56.06, with a range of $36.90 to $64.46, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Polaris sells toys no one can afford right now
Picture a weekend rider looking at a new ATV while credit cards are maxed and fuel prices bite. Polaris makes those machines across off-road, on-road and marine lines yet it is losing money fast. Revenue is up eight percent but margins sit at minus six percent and return on equity has fallen to minus forty five percent. At twenty three point five times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value of fifty five dollars sixty seven, so there is no margin of safety and no reason to step in.
The analyst crowd sees the same picture and calls it a hold with a seventy dollar target. That leaves the stock looking both expensive and fragile in a consumer cyclical business where demand can vanish when rates stay high.
Margins this weak inside a sector tied to discretionary spending point to real cyclical risk rather than a temporary dip. Currency moves and dealer inventory swings add further pressure. Ethical screen cleared but the numbers do not justify ownership.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PII trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$59.41+10.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$53.74+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$53.74+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$53.74+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$53.74+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$53.74+6.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$50.56+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$50.56+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$50.56-7.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
