Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price57.89 USD
Fair value60.55
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown63.74-9.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup70.93-18.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Polaris Inc. holds its Markdown at $57.89. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$57.89
Valuation
N/A trailing · 17.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate Database
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Listed by AFSC Investigate Database for: Supplies ATVs to the Israeli military and settlements. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Polaris sells toys no one can afford right now
Picture a weekend rider looking at a new ATV while credit cards are maxed and fuel prices bite. Polaris makes those machines across off-road, on-road and marine lines yet it is losing money fast. Revenue is up eight percent but margins sit at minus six percent and return on equity has fallen to minus forty five percent. At twenty three point five times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value of fifty five dollars sixty seven, so there is no margin of safety and no reason to step in.
The analyst crowd sees the same picture and calls it a hold with a seventy dollar target. That leaves the stock looking both expensive and fragile in a consumer cyclical business where demand can vanish when rates stay high.
Margins this weak inside a sector tied to discretionary spending point to real cyclical risk rather than a temporary dip. Currency moves and dealer inventory swings add further pressure. Ethical screen cleared but the numbers do not justify ownership.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PII trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$63.74-10.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-08-08Markup$71.57+0.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-07-18Markup$70.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-07-03Markup$70.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$70.93Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
