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The Screen · Basic Materials · Copper
Hudbay Minerals Inc
HBM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $9.8B
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 7.22, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price21.44 USD
Fair value25.37
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markdown24.22-11.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 7 days
2026-10-14Read Accumulation26.12-17.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown26.65-19.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-08-31Read Accumulation26.69-19.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 17% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hudbay Minerals Inc holds its Markdown at $21.44. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$21.44
Valuation
14.09 trailing · 10.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.01%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Hudbay Minerals clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 17%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $25.37 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 17.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $25.37, with a range of $25.37 to $29.17, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Copper booms feel easy until the price turns
Picture a miner who finally hits rich seams after years of waiting. Hudbay shows revenue up 27 percent, a 28 percent profit margin and 19 percent ROE, all at a forward multiple of 11.3 times. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none because this is a classic cyclical setup where peak earnings can make any multiple look cheap.
The narrow moat and strong ethical screen do not change the core problem. Copper prices drive these results, and when they fall the same low multiple quickly signals trouble rather than value. Past cycles show that what appears cheap on paper often marks the top of the earnings wave, not the start of a bargain.
Currency swings, project delays and sudden metal price drops remain the real threats. The market's strong buy chorus ignores how quickly margins compress in this industry. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HBM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$21.44-2.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-28Markdown$21.98-9.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-21Markdown · changed$24.22-7.3%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$26.65-0.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 17.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Markup$27.82+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 159%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Markup$27.82+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$27.82Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
