ENTRY
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Mexico, the United States, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Other American countries.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$179.29
26.44 P/E · 24.81 fwd
Our fair value
$113.03
37% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$165.00
-8% to current
Target low $128.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $250.00
▲ current $179.29 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
-
Business activity
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
-
Debt load
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
-
Interest-bearing cash
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
-
Receivables
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
-
Revenue purity
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Copper Miner Priced for Endless Boom
Copper prices swing like a pendulum in a storm, and Southern Copper rides every move. At 172 dollars the shares sit 36 percent above our fair value, with a forward multiple of 24 times that leaves little room for the next downturn.
Revenue jumped 36 percent and margins hit 34 percent, yet the business carries only a narrow moat in a sector where costs and ore grades move fast. Analysts already rate it underperform with a 160 dollar median target, and the ethical screen offers no offset.
This is classic cyclical value trap territory. Peak earnings can make any multiple look tame until volumes and prices reset together. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27
Markup $179.29
+0.0% Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26
Markup $179.29
+0.0% Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25
Markup $179.29
+3.9% Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24
Markup $172.48
+0.0% Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23
Markup $172.48
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22
Markup $172.48
+0.0% Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21
Markup $172.48
+0.0% Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20
Markup $172.48
-9.1% Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18
Markup $189.79
+0.0% Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 83%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (16 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-03
Markup $189.79
+0.0% Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.