Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Freeport-McMoRan holds its Markup at $76.62. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 130 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 130 days
Price at the screen
$76.62
Valuation
37.56 trailing · 18.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.21%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $54.97 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Copper miner priced for endless boom times
Picture a digger hauling ore while prices surge, only to watch the market already bake in permanent highs. Freeport-McMoRan sits in that exact spot. Our numbers place it seven percent above fair value, so the shares offer no margin of safety despite the moderate moat and clean ethical screen.
Forward earnings sit at fourteen point five times while revenue grows nine percent and returns on equity reach sixteen percent. Profit margins of ten percent look respectable, yet in copper those figures often mark the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. Twenty two analysts still push a buy with a seventy four dollar median target, but that optimism ignores how peak earnings can flatten multiples without any drop in the share price.
The real risk sits in commodity swings and capital intensity that can turn a modest premium into lasting underperformance. Low multiples in cyclical miners usually signal warning, not opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FCX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$71.22+22.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68.
2026-07-22Distribution$58.38+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$58.38+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$58.38+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$63.37+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$63.37+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Markup$63.37+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $68. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$63.37+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$63.37Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.