Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.54, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price30.44 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution29.05+4.8% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 7 days
2026-10-25Read Markdown31.99-4.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 7 days
2026-10-18Read Markup34.75-12.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation37.91-19.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ero Copper Corp. holds its Markdown at $30.44. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$30.44
Valuation
10.84 trailing · 6.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.87%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.68%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ero Copper clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 33%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when ERO's ethical verdict changes
Today ERO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.39x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Copper miner shows strong numbers but cycle looms
Picture a Brazilian copper pit where one strong price spike fills the coffers fast. Ero Copper is riding exactly that wave, with revenue up 110 percent, a 32 percent profit margin and 32 percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at just 5.1 times, and the shares trade 35 percent below our fair value mark. Yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
The business passes our ethical screen without issue and three analysts see further upside. Still the low multiple reflects peak cycle earnings rather than a lasting bargain. Copper prices swing hard, and what looks cheap on today's numbers can quickly turn expensive when demand cools. Unknown competitive edge adds another layer of uncertainty.
Currency moves in Brazil, volatile metal markets and the usual capital intensity of mining keep risk elevated. Low multiples in cyclical sectors often signal the top of the earnings cycle, not a margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ERO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-25Markdown · changed$31.99-7.9%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$34.75-8.3%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-10-02Markup$34.70-11.6%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-08-28Markup · changed$39.24+62.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 62.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markup$29.39+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 66%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markup$29.39+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$29.39Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
