Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Duolingo, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $143.68. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$143.68
Valuation
16.98 trailing · 18.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.22%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
60.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 60.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
4.36%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Green owl app meets modest upside and analyst doubt
Picture millions tapping through daily streaks on the Duolingo app, turning language practice into something closer to a game than a lesson. The company posts 26% revenue growth, 38% profit margins and 37% ROE, with an ethical screen cleared. Yet our fair value sits only 6% above the current price and 18 analysts carry a hold rating with a median target of $114, leaving little room for outperformance.
The valuation at 17.1 times forward earnings does not scream cheap once the growth rate normalises, and an unknown moat leaves the business exposed to bigger tech platforms that could copy the gamified format. High returns on equity are impressive on paper, but they rest on a user base that can switch apps or reduce spend without much friction.
Risk centres on execution in a crowded education space where free alternatives and school budgets can cap pricing power. Currency moves and ad revenue cycles add further volatility that the modest margin of safety does not fully offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DUOL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup$146.04+9.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-27Markup$133.85+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-18Markup$133.85+9.1%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105.
2026-07-03Markup$122.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$122.63Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
