Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.80, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price161.27 USD
Fair value148.23
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markdown139.58+15.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-11Read Accumulation146.57+10.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution146.57+10.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 20% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup122.63+31.5% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Duolingo, Inc. holds its Markdown at $161.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 37 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 37 days
Price at the screen
$161.27
Valuation
19.15 trailing · 21.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
4.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 4.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.22%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
60.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 60.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
4.36%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Duolingo,'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 60% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when DUOL's ethical verdict changes
Today DUOL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $148.23 fair value estimate, 18.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.8% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $148.23, with a range of $119.22 to $198.70, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Green owl app meets modest upside and analyst doubt
Picture millions tapping through daily streaks on the Duolingo app, turning language practice into something closer to a game than a lesson. The company posts 26% revenue growth, 38% profit margins and 37% ROE, with an ethical screen cleared. Yet our fair value sits only 6% above the current price and 18 analysts carry a hold rating with a median target of $114, leaving little room for outperformance.
The valuation at 17.1 times forward earnings does not scream cheap once the growth rate normalises, and an unknown moat leaves the business exposed to bigger tech platforms that could copy the gamified format. High returns on equity are impressive on paper, but they rest on a user base that can switch apps or reduce spend without much friction.
Risk centres on execution in a crowded education space where free alternatives and school budgets can cap pricing power. Currency moves and ad revenue cycles add further volatility that the modest margin of safety does not fully offset. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DUOL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markdown$131.59+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$131.59+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$131.59-3.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$136.39+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$136.39-4.6%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$143.04+2.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$139.58+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$139.58+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown · changed$139.58-0.4%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$140.10-4.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 75%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (17 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $105. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
