Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Navan, Inc. holds its Distribution at $21.02. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$21.02
Valuation
N/A trailing · 52.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.20%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
9.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 9.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
46.79%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 46.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.32%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +43% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
AI travel app priced well beyond its worth
Picture a corporate traveller tapping an app to book a flight, only to watch the company burn cash on every trip while promising future magic from AI. Navan sits at this intersection, delivering 40% revenue growth through its expense platform yet posting a negative 47% profit margin and negative 53% return on equity. We pass because the current price of 25.96 dollars sits 26% above our fair value of 19.29 dollars, with a forward price to earnings ratio of 78.7 times that leaves no room for the execution slips common in this space.
The business model looks clean on paper and clears our ethical screen without issue, yet the unknown competitive moat and heavy losses make the growth story feel fragile rather than durable. Analyst targets cluster around 30 dollars on a strong buy consensus, but those figures ignore how quickly high multiples can compress when cash burn persists.
Risk sits around the valuation gap and the cyclical nature of corporate travel spend, where a slowdown could widen losses further and leave little buffer. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NAVN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$29.29+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Accumulation$29.29+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Accumulation$29.29+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown$29.29+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$29.29+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$26.62+33.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 33.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Accumulation$19.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (15 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Accumulation$19.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.