Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
AppFolio, Inc. holds its Markup at $208.48. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 36 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 36 days
Price at the screen
$208.48
Valuation
47.38 trailing · 24.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
11.18%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.86%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Software that keeps rental properties running smoothly
Every time a property manager logs a maintenance ticket or chases late rent across dozens of units, AppFolio sits in the background handling the workflow. The business shows 20% revenue growth, a 15% profit margin and 33% return on equity at a forward multiple of 21.9 times, numbers that point to a competent operator in a fragmented market.
We pass because the opportunity rating sits at none. An unknown moat and lack of standout edge mean the 22% gap to fair value does not translate into a compelling case once ordinary execution risk is priced in.
Currency and sector cyclicality add little extra heat here, yet the real estate software cycle can still swing with interest rates and housing turnover. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APPF trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$194.11+8.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $229. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-21Distribution$179.73+11.5%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $229.
2026-07-18Distribution$161.21+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $229.
2026-07-17Distribution$161.21+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $229.
2026-07-03Distribution$161.21+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$161.21Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
