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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
CMS Energy
CMS · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $21.4B · 8,350 employees
CMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
68.17 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
CMS Energy holds its Markdown at $68.17. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$68.17
Valuation
20.53 trailing · 16.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.54%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.55%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $70.67 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
A Utility That Fails On Debt Alone
Picture a Michigan household switching on the lights without a thought. CMS Energy keeps the power flowing, yet we are staying away because the balance sheet already breaks our ethical screen on debt levels.
Revenue is growing at 12 percent and margins sit near 13 percent, but the 17.6 times forward earnings multiple offers no cushion when our fair value sits slightly below the current price. A moderate moat and 10 percent return on equity do not offset the fact that analysts are already baking in an 82 dollar target the numbers do not support.
The debt ratio is the decisive fail. Regulated returns can look steady until interest costs rise or rate cases disappoint, and that leverage turns routine utility work into genuine risk. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-25Markup · changed$73.65+2.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Distribution$72.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Distribution$72.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$72.04Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
