Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.36, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price70.98 USD
Fair value67.58
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markup68.70+3.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-20Read Accumulation68.70+3.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 10% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown62.60+13.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Distribution68.27+4.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CMS Energy holds its Markup at $70.98. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$70.98
Valuation
25.04 trailing · 16.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.54%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.55%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
CMS Energy's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 47% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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Today CMS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $67.58 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 8.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $67.58, with a range of $61.20 to $77.72, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
A Utility That Fails On Debt Alone
Picture a Michigan household switching on the lights without a thought. CMS Energy keeps the power flowing, yet we are staying away because the balance sheet already breaks our ethical screen on debt levels.
Revenue is growing at 12 percent and margins sit near 13 percent, but the 17.6 times forward earnings multiple offers no cushion when our fair value sits slightly below the current price. A moderate moat and 10 percent return on equity do not offset the fact that analysts are already baking in an 82 dollar target the numbers do not support.
The debt ratio is the decisive fail. Regulated returns can look steady until interest costs rise or rate cases disappoint, and that leverage turns routine utility work into genuine risk. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$70.10+2.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-10-27Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$68.70+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$68.70+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$65.49+4.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
