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The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
PPL Corporation
PPL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $26.0B · 6,546 employees
PPL Corporation provides electricity and natural gas to approximately 3.6 million customers in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
34.55 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
PPL Corporation holds its Distribution at $34.55. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$34.55
Valuation
20.44 trailing · 16.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.22%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $36.88 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 4.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady power bills hide a debt problem
Millions flip a switch each morning without thinking about the wires that deliver the current. PPL runs that network across three regulated US states and serves 3.6 million customers. Yet the business fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio, so we pass regardless of the modest 3 percent margin of safety at the current price.
Revenue is growing 11 percent and the profit margin sits at 13 percent, but return on equity is only 8 percent with a narrow moat. The forward multiple of 16.9 times earnings offers little cushion for a regulated utility already carrying too much leverage. Analyst targets sit higher, yet those forecasts do not change the ethical verdict.
High debt leaves the company exposed to rising interest costs and any tightening of regulatory returns. That combination turns an apparently stable business into one we choose to avoid. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PPL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markup · changed$34.38-1.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-08-09Markdown · changed$34.95-2.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.74+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.74+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.74Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
