The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
FirstEnergy
FE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $26.7B · 11,186 employees
FirstEnergy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
46.21 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
FirstEnergy holds its Distribution at $46.21. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 300 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 300 days
Price at the screen
$46.21
Valuation
24.71 trailing · 15.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.15%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $48.62 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Utility keeps lights on but borrows heavily
FirstEnergy keeps the lights on across the Midwest yet runs on borrowed money that trips our ethical screen at the first check. We pass because the shares sit right at fair value with almost no margin of safety and the narrow moat offers little comfort in a tightly regulated business.
Revenue growth looks solid at twelve percent but margins remain thin at seven percent while return on equity sits at just nine. Forward earnings at sixteen and a half times leave no room for the debt burden already flagged as a clear fail.
High leverage leaves the company exposed if rates stay elevated or regulators squeeze allowed returns further. The buy-rated analyst targets ignore that structural weakness.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markdown · changed$45.96-6.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-28Distribution$49.32+6.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Distribution$46.42+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Distribution$46.42+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$46.42Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
