An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · CF Industries Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production of ammonia in North America, Europe, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $122.92
CF Industries holds its Markup at $122.92.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price
$122.92
Valuation
10.79 trailing · 11.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.0
Beta
0.39
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY — it trades above our $107.21 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 19.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$122.92
10.79 P/E · 11.12 fwd
Our fair value
$107.21
13% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$121.00
-2% to current
Target low $100.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $195.72
▲ current $122.92 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$122.92
you are here
Conservative
$90.00
-27%
Analyst avg
$121.00
-2%
Our fair value
$107.21
-13%
Analyst high
$195.72
+59%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
19.40%
Profit margin
23.73%
Debt to equity
43.85
Analyst consensus
Hold · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Nitrogen maker looks cheap until the cycle turns
Think of a farmer who buys fertiliser only when rain is late and prices spike. CF Industries sits at the centre of that bet. It carries a strong moat, 24 percent profit margins, 27 percent return on equity and 19 percent revenue growth, all while clearing the ethical screen. The forward multiple of 10.8 times looks attractive next to those returns.
Yet the shares trade 12 percent above our fair value of 107 dollars against a 121 dollar price. In a cyclical industry such numbers often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Nineteen analysts sit on hold with a median target near the current level, which tells its own story.
The risk is the classic value trap. When planting slows and inventories build, margins compress fast and the low multiple stops looking cheap. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CF trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $125. Entered 2026-07-24 · Accumulation
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-18Markup$113.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-03Markup$113.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$113.49Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
