Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.85, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price116.81 USD
Fair value111.76
Ethical score83.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation120.85-3.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-11Read Markdown115.51+1.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 7 weeks
2026-08-24Read Distribution129.60-9.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-24Read Accumulation121.42-3.8% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CF Industries holds its Accumulation at $116.81. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$116.81
Valuation
9.15 trailing · 10.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.0
Beta
0.53
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
CF Industries clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CF's ethical verdict changes
Today CF passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $111.76 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 17.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $111.76, with a range of $94.50 to $128.52, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nitrogen maker looks cheap until the cycle turns
Think of a farmer who buys fertiliser only when rain is late and prices spike. CF Industries sits at the centre of that bet. It carries a strong moat, 24 percent profit margins, 27 percent return on equity and 19 percent revenue growth, all while clearing the ethical screen. The forward multiple of 10.8 times looks attractive next to those returns.
Yet the shares trade 12 percent above our fair value of 107 dollars against a 121 dollar price. In a cyclical industry such numbers often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Nineteen analysts sit on hold with a median target near the current level, which tells its own story.
The risk is the classic value trap. When planting slows and inventories build, margins compress fast and the low multiple stops looking cheap. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CF trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$120.33-2.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$123.30+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$123.30+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$123.30+4.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$118.09-1.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $129. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$119.92-0.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$120.85+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128.
2026-10-18Markdown$120.85+4.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$115.51+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $128.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
