Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
CF Industries holds its Markup at $138.11. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$138.11
Valuation
10.25 trailing · 13.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $105.30 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 17.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nitrogen maker looks cheap until the cycle turns
Think of a farmer who buys fertiliser only when rain is late and prices spike. CF Industries sits at the centre of that bet. It carries a strong moat, 24 percent profit margins, 27 percent return on equity and 19 percent revenue growth, all while clearing the ethical screen. The forward multiple of 10.8 times looks attractive next to those returns.
Yet the shares trade 12 percent above our fair value of 107 dollars against a 121 dollar price. In a cyclical industry such numbers often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Nineteen analysts sit on hold with a median target near the current level, which tells its own story.
The risk is the classic value trap. When planting slows and inventories build, margins compress fast and the low multiple stops looking cheap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CF trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $126.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-18Markup$113.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $125.
2026-07-03Markup$113.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$113.49Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
