Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-17
Options put/call open interest 2.82, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price11.33 USD
Fair value11.81
Ethical score90.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution77.03-85.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Corteva holds its Distribution at $11.33. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$11.33
Valuation
7.95 trailing · 11.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 90.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.37%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.78%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Corteva clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 6%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $11.81 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +50% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Seeds and sprays priced for perfect harvests
Picture a farmer locking in next season's seed at a fat premium while the weather, pests and grain prices stay wild cards. Corteva sits in that spot right now. At 21 times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, and the narrow moat plus low single-digit ROE give little cushion when cycles turn.
The business splits between seeds and crop protection, both tied to farm incomes that swing with commodity prices and weather. Revenue growth looks solid at 11 percent, yet a 6 percent profit margin and 5 percent return on equity hardly scream durable advantage in a cyclical field. Analysts may cluster around a buy rating, but the valuation already prices in smooth sailing.
Cyclical names often flash cheap multiples at peak earnings; here the multiple is not cheap and the earnings can still fall fast. Currency moves, regulation on crop chemicals and sudden drops in planted acres all sit outside management control. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CTVA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$12.88+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-10-21Distribution$12.88-83.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 83.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-10-14Distribution$78.52+0.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-10-02Distribution$78.52-1.2%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-08-26Distribution$79.46-9.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-25Distribution$87.30+13.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-18Distribution$77.03+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-03Distribution$77.03+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$77.03Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (90). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.