Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Mosaic Company (The) holds its Markup at $25.40. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$25.40
Valuation
N/A trailing · 16.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 86.6
Beta
0.83
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.57%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.55%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.45%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $17.55 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 30.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fertiliser swings create classic cyclical value trap
Picture a mine that turns rock into the nutrients farmers need one season and then sits idle the next when crop prices collapse. Mosaic shows 14 percent revenue growth yet posts a zero profit margin and just 1 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of 11.8 times.
The shares sit near our fair value with an opportunity label and a clean ethical screen, while nineteen analysts still carry a buy rating and a 27 dollar median target. On paper the numbers invite a second look.
Yet this is the textbook cyclical trap. Earnings peak when demand is hottest and multiples compress right before volumes and prices roll over, leaving investors holding thin returns and a weak competitive position when the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MOS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markup · changed$24.00+5.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $27.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.24Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
