MOS
Mosaic Company (The)
Materials · Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals · US
$21.82
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$6.9B
Trailing P/E
155.82
Forward P/E
11.03
Rev Growth
+14.4%
Profit Margin
0.4%
ROE
0.6%
Analyst Target
$27.56
Recommendation
HOLD
About Mosaic Company (The)

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. It operates in three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. The company owns and operates mines and production facilities, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, as well as concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and MicroEssentials, a value-added ammoniated phosphate product. It also mines, processes, and sells potash to crop nutrient manufacturers, distributors, retailers, and to customers for industrial use; and owns and operates mines, chemical plants, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals and warehouses, which produce and sell concentrated phosphate and potash-based crop nutrients, and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients. In addition, the company produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under the K-Mag brand; and purchases phosphate, potash, and nitrogen products to produce blended crop nutrients. Further, it offers triple superphosphate, single superphosphate, and dicalcium phosphate; feed phosphate under the Biofos and Nexfos brands; potash for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant; and phosphogypsum. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through its sales force. It also exports its products. The company operates in the United States, Brazil, China, Canada, Paraguay, Argentina, Japan, Colombia, India, Australia, Peru, Mexico, Honduras, the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and internationally. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $22 against a fair value of $28, a 23% discount. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 92% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.22%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.08%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.05%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 86.6
Score Valuation: 83.5
Score Quality: 43.2
Score Combined: 59.5
Fair Value Est: $28.48 · Margin of Safety: +23.4% · Tier: OPPORTUNITY

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation70.0
Quality24.9
Cash Flow0.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet87.7
Debt Purity34.6
Liquid Purity77.1
Rev Purity91.1
Compliance63.7
Tier: SILVER · Score: 58.8 · Rank: #530
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-040.18Pending--
2026-05-110.230.05-78.4%
2026-02-240.440.22-50.5%
2025-11-040.951.04+9.4%
2025-08-050.720.51-28.9%
2025-05-060.450.49+10.1%
2025-02-270.570.45-21.1%
2024-11-120.560.38-31.7%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$3.0B-$257.6M$96.0M$235.6M-$140.3M-0.81
2025-12-31$3.0B-$519.5M$68.5M$342.6M$156.0M-1.64
2025-09-30$3.5B$411.4M$935.6M$552.3M$339.8M1.30
2025-06-30$3.0B$410.7M$892.1M$518.6M$244.4M1.29
2025-03-31$2.6B$238.1M$608.0M$488.4M$338.5M0.75
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-03-09BODINE BRUCE MChief Executive Officer19,484--
2026-03-09SWAGER KAREN AOfficer17,319--
2026-03-09WANG YIJUNOfficer10,824--
2026-03-09BAUER PHILIP EUGENEGeneral Counsel10,824--
2026-03-09PRECOURT WALTER F. IIIOfficer17,319$138.3K
2026-03-09FLUGEL RUSSELL AOfficer5,545--
2026-01-02BAUER PHILIP EUGENEGeneral Counsel5,865--
2025-11-11KUZENKO JODY LYNNE MARYDirector685$17.5K
2025-05-29PRECOURT WALTER F. IIIOfficer18,000$643.1K
2025-05-29TEIXEIRA JOAO ROBERTO GONCALVESDirector6,022--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
FMR, LLC29.1M$654.6M0.1%
Blackrock Inc.23.6M$532.3M0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC20.6M$464.5M0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC15.3M$344.5M0.0%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP14.2M$320.5M0.0%
State Street Corporation13.4M$301.8M0.0%
Invesco Ltd.11.2M$252.9M0.0%
AQR Capital Management, LLC10.9M$245.9M0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC8.8M$197.0M0.0%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc6.8M$152.8M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
3
4
11
20 analysts
2 Months Ago
3
4
11
20 analysts
Last Month
4
6
9
20 analysts
Current
4
4
10
20 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$12.8B
Price/Book
0.59
Beta
0.797
Analysts
18
Total Revenue (TTM)
$12.4B
Total Debt
$5.8B
Dividend Yield
3.9%
Rec. Mean
2.55
Short Ratio
2.01
Short % Float
0.1%
Employees
13,249

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 59.5 (P95 — top 5.4% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical PASS. 19 analysts at Hold.
Price: $21.82 | Target: $26.98 (+24%) | Fair Value: $28.48 (+31%)
Score
60
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+24%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+14.4%
Profit Margin0.4%
ROE0.6%
Forward P/E11.0
Market Cap$6.9B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-04$0.18Pending
2026-05-11$0.23$0.05-78.4%
2026-02-24$0.44$0.22-50.5%
2025-11-04$0.95$1.04+9.4%
2025-08-05$0.72$0.51-28.9%
2025-05-06$0.45$0.49+10.1%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $18.54 (-15%) | Entry: $21.82
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($26.98, 19 analysts)
10$218.15+$51.60 (24%)1.6R
50$1,090.75+$258.00 (24%)1.6R
100$2,181.50+$516.00 (24%)1.6R
To Fair Value ($28.48)
10$218.15+$66.60 (31%)2.0R
50$1,090.75+$333.00 (31%)2.0R
100$2,181.50+$666.00 (31%)2.0R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Mosaic Company (The) passes all ethical screens and holds a weak competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
51.0
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-4.4%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-6.2%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-0.41
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
80
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.9x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
25.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
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MOO0.662
CF0.504
CTVA0.500
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LXU0.477
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
HACBY-0.159
4326.SR-0.143
ASIC-0.134
NIND.AE-0.131
ALMANAR.KW-0.123
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Friday
Best Month
Jan
Worst Month
Oct
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.21642704951405917
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+6.0%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-4.8%
3M Return
-19.1%
6M Return
-2.8%
12M Return
-32.7%
Momentum Rank
#3842
Momentum Signal
DOWN

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