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The Screen · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.3B · 5,200 employees
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
61.80 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 06:07 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price61.80 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price61.80 USD
Fair value56.12
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markup55.86+10.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 9% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-13Read Markdown61.35+0.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-13Read Markup62.91-1.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup while volume is distributing
2026-07-02Read Distribution61.67+0.2% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company holds its Markup at $61.80. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 53 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 53 days
Price at the screen
$61.80
Valuation
19.95 trailing · 11.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
86.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 86.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.90%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Scotts Miracle-Gro's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 87% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $56.12 fair value estimate, 1.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $56.12, with a range of $54.00 to $64.53, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Spring fertiliser sales hide a cyclical trap
Every spring, homeowners grab bags of lawn food and weedkiller from the shelves. Scotts Miracle-Gro sits behind many of those products, yet the shares trade well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety. Low revenue growth and thin margins do not justify the premium when the market already prices in an optimistic recovery.
The forward multiple sits at 15 times while the business expands at just five percent and earns only three percent net margins. In a cyclical industry such as agricultural inputs, that combination often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. The low multiple is the warning sign, not the opportunity.
Currency swings, weather patterns and shifting consumer spending on discretionary garden goods add real volatility. Analyst targets sit higher, yet our valuation already incorporates those hopes and still finds the price stretched. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SMG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$62.24+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$62.24+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$62.24+5.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$59.29+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$59.29+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$59.29+6.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$55.86+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$55.86+12.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-14Markdown$49.86-4.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-02Markdown$52.36-14.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $74.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
