An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $36.73
Amer Sports, Inc. holds its Distribution at $36.73.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 251 days
Price
$36.73
Valuation
45.91 trailing · 23.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
2.05
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 13% discount to our $41.49 fair value, weak competitive moat, 32.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$36.73
45.91 P/E · 23.44 fwd
Our fair value
$41.49
13% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$48.50
+32% to current
Target low $40.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $63.00
▲ current $36.73 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$36.73
you are here
Conservative
$36.45
-1%
Analyst avg
$48.50
+32%
Our fair value
$41.49
+13%
Analyst high
$63.00
+72%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
32.10%
Profit margin
6.50%
Debt to equity
14.82
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 22 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 9.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
New trainers in Shanghai hide thin margins
Picture someone in Helsinki pulling on a new pair of skis or a runner in Jakarta buying fresh trainers. Amer Sports sits behind many of those purchases and revenue is rising fast at 32 percent. Yet the business earns only a 6 percent profit margin and an 8 percent return on equity while its competitive edge looks weak.
We pass because a forward multiple of 23 times earnings buys exposure to a cyclical consumer business that cannot turn growth into strong returns. The 15 percent gap to our fair value does not change the fact that low profitability and a thin moat leave little room for disappointment.
Analysts see further upside and the ethical screen is clear, but consumer spending on discretionary goods can slow quickly when wallets tighten. That combination keeps the opportunity rating at avoid.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AS trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. Entered 2026-07-21 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Markdown$36.44+6.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-18Markdown$34.10+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-17Markdown$34.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-03Markdown$34.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$34.10Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AS
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
9 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
8 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
sell
100K–250K
8 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
7 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$34.50
-2.6%
·
$974
-2.6%
2 months
$35.22
-4.6%
·
$954
-4.6%
3 months
$32.35
+3.9%
·
$1,039
+3.9%
6 months
$39.36
-14.7%
·
$854
-14.7%
1 year
$37.84
-11.2%
·
$888
-11.2%
2 years
$14.69
+128.7%
·
$2,287
+128.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AS does next, these words stay.
Amer Sports, Inc. · AS · Distribution · $36.73
Recorded 2026-08-05 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
