Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.44, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price166.17 USD
Fair value199.32
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation142.56+16.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-19Read Markdown143.33+15.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-20Read Accumulation146.97+13.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Distribution140.00+18.7% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Aercap Holdings NV holds its Accumulation at $166.17. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 113 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 113 days
Price at the screen
$166.17
Valuation
8.50 trailing · 8.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
60.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 60.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.99%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Aercap's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 61% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $199.32 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $199.32, with a range of $160.22 to $267.04, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aircraft lessors look cheap until fleets sit idle
Every time a carrier parks jets in the desert after a shock, the leasing companies that own them feel the pain first. AerCap shows solid 45 percent profit margins, 22 percent ROE and 8 percent revenue growth, yet we pass. The forward multiple of 8.6 times flatters peak-cycle earnings in a business that rises and falls with airline health, and our opportunity rating sits at none despite the 22 percent gap to fair value.
The narrow moat and ethical screen clearance do not change the core issue. Aircraft demand is tied to global travel cycles that can turn quickly, leaving lessors with idle assets and stretched balance sheets. Analyst targets cluster near 175, close to our own 180, but that consensus often ignores how fast earnings can drop when traffic falls.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and the narrow competitive edge that offers little protection when orders slow. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AER trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$158.52+7.3%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-10-25Accumulation$147.68+1.2%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-10-18Accumulation$145.92+2.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-10-02Markdown$143.00-0.2%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-09-19Markdown · changed$143.33-3.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-08-20Accumulation$149.19+1.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-18Distribution$140.00+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-16Distribution$140.00+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $166.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.