Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.22, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price128.11 USD
Fair value196.73
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup125.38+2.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-11Read Distribution131.86-2.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown131.86-2.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 9 weeks
2026-08-01Read Accumulation150.14-14.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Herc Holdings Inc. holds its Markup at $128.11. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$128.11
Valuation
81.95 trailing · 11.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Herc's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 70% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when HRI's ethical verdict changes
Today HRI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Equipment rentals boom but profits stay flat
Picture a building site where every digger and lift arrives from the same rental yard. Herc has delivered 32% revenue growth by meeting that demand, yet the business reports zero profit margins and zero return on equity. The market prices the shares at 15.2 times forward earnings with a buy rating from analysts, but those figures mask a company that is not yet converting sales into real earnings.
We therefore pass. The ethical screen is clear and the shares sit below the stated fair value, yet unknown competitive position plus flat profitability leave no durable edge to underwrite. Cyclical exposure in construction and infrastructure adds further uncertainty that a low multiple alone cannot offset.
Peak-cycle revenue can look attractive until demand slows and margins stay pinned at zero. The risk is paying for growth that never reaches the bottom line. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HRI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Markup$125.38+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$125.38+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$125.38+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$125.38+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$125.38+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$125.38+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$125.38-2.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$128.70+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$128.70-2.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $169.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
